I had more shots but lost. Proof of scripting?

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We hear this a lot: I lose all the time despite having more shots. But does it happen more often in FUT than in real life?

It’s a common perception among FIFA players that you far too often lose despite being the better player.[1][2] When met with the fact that such things happen in real life as well, scripting believers will argue that it happens far more often in FUT. But is this claim really true?

We decided to check it out, using our match database from FUT 16 Seasons. This is what we found:

  Winner had fewer shots Other result
Winner had fewer shots 85 1015
Winner had >=5 fewer shots 2 1098

What we see above is that in a sample consisting of 1100 matches, the winner had fewer shots than the loser in 85 / 1100 = 8 % of the matches. However, this number also includes matches where the winner just had 1 shot fewer than the loser, which I highly doubt that anyone would consider suspicious.

When we narrow the scope to matches, where the winner had 5 or more shots fewer than the loser, we find that this was the case in 0.18 % of the cases.

In other words, our database doesn’t support the assertion that you are more likely or very likely to lose if you have more shots. It will happen just like it did when Celtic beat Barca, but absolutely nothing suggests that it happens to an unusual extent in FUT.